Sidebar article:
Keep Expectations Low
BY WILLIAM KNOKE
As a noted futurist, I was once advised to never give a prediction within the next five years, as you may be shown to be wrong. But just for fun, I’m going to take a chance on Y2K. From a news standpoint, like Halley’s Comet, people are going to wonder what all the fuss was about. The Y2K computer problems will either not materialize, or fall much short of the hype. Here’s what will happen:
On Saturday, January 1, 2000, the newspapers will report Y2K on Page 3 mostly for Asia and Europe, which enter the new millennia 8 to 17 hours ahead of us. Most of our local problems just won’t be known in time for the publication deadlines. The evening television news on January 1st will start to cover local issues with human-interest stories. Besides, stories of terrorism or nostalgic summaries of the past century will provide better copy. It will not be until Monday, January 3rd, when businesses reopen, that some will realize that their order entry systems don’t work the way they used to. Sales will be lost to competitors who better planned ahead. Despite many rough spots, the public will lose interest.
Nonetheless, on Sunday, January 2nd, look for a boxed sidebar somewhere inside most metropolitan newspapers that will summarize the Y2K problem. The details are impossible to know in advance, but it will read something like this:
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Pocatello, Idaho. Telephone systems went down, but the phone company was able to reboot the system by dawn. Billing may be disrupted.
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Chicago. Terrorists caught attempting to launch bomb attacks on city.
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Bombay. Airplane crashes on landing. Experts are working to determine if it is Y2K related.
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China. A government spokesman reports minor export disruptions, but nothing else.
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Russia. Major catastrophe as power grid darkens in two cities, and hospitals have insufficient emergency power backup. Most of the power was restored by noon the next day.
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USA. Circuit City reports VCR sales increased 10% as customers’ old systems give the wrong day of the week for automated recording. Several companies have disrupted order entry, and may be struggling with manual systems for weeks. Government spokesperson announces that some welfare tracking will be delayed for 10 days, as some systems require manual entries. Congress and the White House launch independent investigations.
By January 5th, theY2K coverage will begin to fall back to page 12. By February 1, “Y2K” will acquire a new meaning, which will be entered in the Webster’s 2001 edition: “an unrealized exaggeration.”
Let’s hope so, anyway.
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